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ProPetro Holding Corp. (PUMP)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 came in ahead of Street: revenue $359.4M vs $344.3M consensus (+4.4%), EPS $0.09 vs $0.06 consensus, and EBITDA ~$69.3M vs $62.9M consensus; management also delivered $22.0M of free cash flow and lowered 2025 capex guidance midpoint by ~9% *.
  • Mix and execution drove the beat: utilization was strong, pricing held “steady” in contracted next-gen fleets, and cost discipline lifted Adjusted EBITDA to $73.0M (20% margin) despite macro volatility; lease expense for e-fleets was $15M .
  • Outlook tempered near term: Q2 active fleets guided down to 13–14 (from 14–15 in Q1) on commodity softness (tariffs/OPEC+) and price discipline in spot diesel; ~50% of horsepower now under long‑term contracts helps buffer volatility .
  • Strategic pivot gaining traction: PROPWR ordered capacity raised to ~220 MW with LOIs for ~75 MW; management prioritizes capital to power/e-fleets with take‑or‑pay returns (~4‑yr payback, ~$300k EBITDA/MW/yr) .
  • Governance/leadership: CFO departed March 4; Chief Accounting Officer Celina Davila is interim PFO, and led the quarter’s detailed financial update, with intent to extend the $200M buyback program, subject to Board approval .

Note: Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global; values retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Strong execution and resilience despite macro: “another great quarter… our strategy is working… despite macroeconomic volatility,” with revenue up 12% QoQ to $359M and Adjusted EBITDA up 38% to $73M (20% margin) .
    • Mix/contracting improved durability: 75% of frac capacity is next‑gen (Tier IV DGB + FORCE e‑fleets); ~50% of active HHP under long‑term contracts; pricing “very steady” in contracted next‑gen .
    • Capital discipline/FCF: Q1 free cash flow $21.9–$22.0M with capex $39M; liquidity $197M; 2025 capex guidance cut to $295–$345M, driven largely by optimization in completions; intent to extend buyback .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Macro-driven near-term softness: Management guiding Q2 active fleets to 13–14 vs 14–15 in Q1 due to lower oil prices linked to tariffs and OPEC+ supply; will not run sub‑economic work .
    • Spot diesel pressure: Some low-price pockets in diesel/spot; management is willing to walk away; confirms consolidation via attrition as uneconomic competitors price at negative FCF .
    • Non-GAAP/one-time noise: Q1 included a $10M loss on asset disposal (Tier II diesel sales), and e‑fleet operating lease expense of $15M; Q4 2024 had a $24M goodwill impairment in wireline, highlighting ongoing portfolio shaping .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025 ActualQ1 2025 Consensus*
Revenue ($M)$405.8 $320.6 $359.4 $344.3*
Diluted EPS ($)$0.18 ($0.17) $0.09 $0.06*
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$93.4 $52.7 $73.0 $62.9*
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)23.0% (=$93.4/$405.8) 16.4% (=$52.7/$320.6) 20.0%

Segment performance – Q1 2025:

  • Segment revenue and profitability
    SegmentService Revenue ($M)Adjusted EBITDA ($M)D&A ($M)
    Hydraulic Fracturing$269.4 $68.3 $41.3
    Wireline$53.4 $10.5 $5.4
    Cementing$36.6 $8.1 $1.9
    Operating lease expense on FORCE e‑fleets
    Operating lease expense (cost of services)$15.3

Key KPIs – Q1 2025:

  • Fleet/contracting/power and cash metrics
    KPIQ1 2025
    Active frac fleets (Q1)14–15
    Q2 2025 active fleets (guidance)13–14
    Next-gen frac mix (Tier IV DGB + FORCE)~75% of fleet
    Long‑term contracts~50% of active HHP (6 fleets under LT contracts)
    PROPWR ordered capacity~220 MW by mid‑2026
    PROPWR LOIs~75 MW (two operators)
    Cash from Ops / FCF$54.7–$55.0M / $21.9–$22.0M
    Capex (incurred)$39.0M
    Liquidity (cash + ABL availability)$197.0M
    e‑fleet operating lease expense$15.0–$15.3M
    Revenue mix (slide)75% Frac / 15% Wireline / 10% Cementing

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total CapexFY 2025$300–$400M (Feb-19 PR) $295–$345M Lowered (~9% at midpoint)
Completions CapexFY 2025$150–$200M (subset of total) $125–$175M Lowered
PROPWR CapexFY 2025 / 2026$150–$200M (FY25) $170M (FY25), $60M (FY26); $104M financed Narrowed/Specified
Active Frac FleetsQ1 2025 → Q2 2025Run 14–15 in Q1 2025 Guide 13–14 in Q2 2025 Lowered

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3’24, Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
Electrification (FORCE e‑fleets)4 e‑fleets operating; fifth planned; Q3’24 impairment of Tier II highlights shift 4 e‑fleets under LT contracts; fifth to deploy in 2025; e‑fleets built for simul‑frac Maturing growth; steady expansion
PROPWR (mobile power)Announced Dec’24; >110 MW ordered + 30 MW; majority H2’25/’26 deliveries Ordered ~220 MW; LOIs ~75 MW; mid‑2026 full delivery; returns ~4‑yr payback, ~$300k EBITDA/MW/yr Scaling with improving visibility
Pricing environmentQ4 seasonal weakness; maintained pricing broadly Contracted next‑gen pricing “very steady”; spot/diesel pressure on fringes; will walk from uneconomic work Bifurcated: steady in LT/next‑gen, soft in spot
Utilization/ActivityQ4 seasonality; 14 fleets expected in Q1’25 Q1 ran 14–15; guide to 13–14 in Q2 on macro softness; industry Permian fleets could slip from ~85–90 to 75–85 into summer Near‑term moderation
Capex/Optimization2024 capex -57% YoY; capex flexibility emphasized 2025 capex cut to $295–$345M; completions capex lowered largely via optimization Further optimized
Capital returnsRaised buyback to $200M (Apr’24); $111M repurchased to date Intend to extend program (Board approval pending) Continuing

Management Commentary

  • Strategic positioning: “Our performance underscores… strong execution… despite macroeconomic volatility… our new PROPWR offering and FORCE electric fleet transition ensure [we] deliver durable returns over time.” – Sam Sledge, CEO .
  • Contracting/portfolio: “We currently operate seven Tier IV DGB dual‑fuel fleets… four FORCE fleets in the field under long‑term contracts… six fleets under contract (~50% of active HHP).” .
  • Capital allocation: “We believe in a dynamic capital allocation strategy… pursue growth through M&A, PROPWR, and FORCE… generated strong free cash flow, solid adjusted EBITDA and lower‑than‑expected capex relative to guidance.” .
  • On optimization: “Lower capex is a strong tailwind for free cash flow… 2025 capex to be $295–$345M… completions $125–$175M; PROPWR $170M in 2025 and $60M in 2026; $104M financed.” – Celina Davila, Interim PFO .
  • Near-term activity: “We anticipate operating approximately between 13 and 14 fleets in the second quarter… we will not compromise [fleet health] by operating… sub‑economic.” – CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • PROPWR scope beyond Permian: While initial contracts are Permian oil & gas, management is seeing opportunities across other geographies/industries; building a platform with flexibility and modularity .
  • Pricing color: Contracted next‑gen pricing is steady given long‑term customer orientation; diesel/spot shows isolated underpricing—PUMP is willing to walk away to preserve returns .
  • Capital allocation stack: Prioritizing power and e‑fleets given known, contract‑backed returns (take‑or‑pay), alongside M&A, wireline/cementing, and buybacks while protecting the balance sheet .
  • Industry activity cadence: Permian fleets could drift from ~85–90 toward 75–85 into summer; PUMP expects to pull at least one fleet in June absent macro change; running four simul‑frac fleets heading into May .
  • PROPWR returns: Targeting ~4‑year paybacks and ~$300k EBITDA per MW per year on contracts; customer interest is strong .

Estimates Context

  • Beat vs S&P Global consensus: Q1 revenue $359.4M vs $344.3M*; EPS $0.09 vs $0.06*; EBITDA ~$69.3M* actual vs $62.9M* consensus, with four EPS estimates and five revenue estimates contributing *.
  • Implications: Model updates likely include higher near‑term EBITDA/FCF on utilization/cost control and lower FY25 capex; however, Q2 activity moderation and spot market pricing caution may temper outer‑quarter revenue assumptions .
    Note: Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global; values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution-led beat with improved cash conversion: solid utilization/pricing and cost control drove EBITDA and FCF upside; e‑fleet leases embedded in COGS are manageable within margin structure .
  • Defensive posture into softer Q2: fleet guidance trimmed to 13–14 and firm price discipline in spot diesel support cycle‑through returns; ~50% contracted HHP and 75% next‑gen mix reduce volatility .
  • PROPWR is a growing growth vector: ordered capacity to ~220 MW with early LOIs (75 MW) and contract‑like returns (take‑or‑pay) can add durable, less cyclical earnings over time .
  • 2025 capex haircut boosts FCF durability: completions capex cut via optimization; explicit PROPWR spend/financing improves visibility; expect share repurchase extension pending Board approval .
  • Watch catalysts: formalization of PROPWR contracts (LOIs → executed agreements), e‑fleet #5 deployment, Q2 utilization trajectory vs guide, pricing discipline in diesel/spot, and CFO successor appointment .

Appendix: Additional detail from primary sources

  • GAAP financials (Q1 2025): Revenue $359.416M; Net income $9.602M; Diluted EPS $0.09; CFFO $54.689M; FCF $21.853M; Cash $63.392M; Liquidity $197M .
  • Non-GAAP: Adjusted EBITDA $72.686M; Lease expense on e‑fleets $15.339M; Segment Adjusted EBITDA totals reconciled in exhibits .

Footnotes: Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global; values retrieved from S&P Global.